Will there be an effective COVID-19 vaccine by the end of the year? Will schools reopen? Will there be another expansion of government subsidies? As COVID cases increase, will more states lockdown again? Join Ed and Ron for all these questions and more, on our update on COVID-19 and the economy.
Segment One Topics
Recovery or relapse? Neither of us really know, nor does anyone else.
Will and when the economy return to normal? Rabbi Daniel Lapin points out in a recent Thought Tool, that there is no word in Hebrew for “normal.” Yes, eventually the economy will rebound, but Lapin thinks a better question is: “When shall we live our lives to the fullest?”
Men lose their mind in herds but recover them only one by one.
Four assumptions about COVID-19, from National Review’s Jim Geraghty, July 16, 2020:
COVID in the USA is more contagious (ten times more) than the strain initially found in Asia.
The death rate is extremely low, but with millions infected that still translates into a horrific loss of life.
A vaccine is coming as fast as anyone could hope for.
Our battle with this virus will last at least till the end of this year, and very well for several more years.
And, as The Economist notes, America has gained nearly 30 new billionaires since March. The top five are thought to be 26% richer collectively than before COVID-19.
Segment Two Topics
Operation Warp Speed (OWS): OWS is a partnership among components of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), and the Department of Defense (DoD). OWS engages with private firms and other federal agencies, including the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Veterans Affairs. It will coordinate existing HHS-wide efforts, including the NIH’s Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines (ACTIV) partnership, NIH’s Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics (RADx) initiative, and work by BARDA.
$3 billion has been spent on two vaccines. Pfizer has rejected cash from OWS, saying the government just slows the firm down. The Economist reports in “Moonshot,” July 4, 2020, that 180 vaccines are in development. Making a dose of the vaccine costs about as much as a cup of coffee.
“Oxford University Coronavirus Vaccine Trial Produces Strong Immune Response,” National Review, Mairead Mcardle, July 2020.
“The people with hidden immunity against Covid-19,” BBC July 19, 2020, Zaria Gorvett.
Sir Isaac Newton had it right when trying to cure the bubonic plague. The answer? Toad vomit. From smithsoinianmag.com, June 5, 2020, by Alex Fox.
Segment Three Topics
The most silly story Ed has read is from Reuters out of South Korea: “People are more likely to contract COVID-19 at home, study finds,” July 21, 2020.
David Bahnsen at Dividend Cafe has a podcast, COVID and Markets, that reports daily on the pandemic and the economy. Ron listened to July 22 and 23 episodes, and one theory posited is that New York City, Sweden, and Delhi, India are approaching herd immunity.
The five states where new cases are rising most rapidly: Mississippi, Alaska, Nevada, Louisiana, and Idaho.
“Retail Subscriptions Thrive During COVID-19,” Forbes, Kaleigh Moore, July 15, 2020. It reports that one in five consumers have purchased a subscription during the pandemic.
If we don't start to see inflation then Ron and Ed think we need to reconsider the theory of inflation—specifically, the Quantity Theory of Money.
Segment Four Topics
Should we reopen the schools? NPR OnPoint did an interesting show on this topic, speaking with pediatricians from around the world. Also, The Economist says “Let them learn,” arguing that keeping schools closed will do more harm than good.
“Florida Teachers Unions Sues to Stop School Openings amid Virus Surge,” National Review, Brittany Bernstein, July 21, 2020.
Why is there a shortage of coins in the economy? “COVID’s Latest Trick: Making Coins Disappear,” FEE, July 20, 2020.
Bonus Content is Available As Well
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