Episode #476: The Conservative Futurist — Interview with Jim Pethokoukis

America was once the world’s dream factory. We turned imagination into reality, from curing polio to landing on the Moon to creating the internet. But as we moved into the late 20th century, we grew cautious, even cynical, about what the future held and our ability to shape it. Too many of us saw only the threats from rapid change. What caused this to happen? More importantly, what can we do to change it? Ron and Ed are thrilled have someone who has squarely addressed these questions. Jim Pethokoukis is the author of The Conservative Futurist: How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised. Jim is a senior fellow and the DeWitt Wallace Chair at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he analyzes US economic policy, writes and edits the AEIdeas blog, and hosts AEI’s Political Economy podcast. He is also a contributor to CNBC and writes the Faster, Please! newsletter on Substack.

About Jim Pethokoukis

James Pethokoukis is a senior fellow and the DeWitt Wallace Chair at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he analyzes US economic policy, writes and edits the AEIdeas blog, and hosts AEI’s Political Economy podcast. He is also a contributor to CNBC and writes the Faster, Please! newsletter on Substack. Before joining AEI, Mr. Pethokoukis was the Washington columnist for Reuters’s Breakingviews, the opinion and commentary wing of Thomson Reuters. Earlier, he was the business editor and economics columnist for US News & World Report. Mr. Pethokoukis is the author of The Conservative Futurist: How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised (Center Street, 2023). He has also written for many publications, including the Atlantic, Commentary, Financial Times, Investor’s Business Daily, National Review, New York Post, the New York Times, USA Today, and the Week. His numerous broadcast appearances include CNBC, CNN, Fox Business Network, Fox News Channel, MSNBC, and PBS. A graduate of Northwestern University and the Medill School of Journalism, Mr. Pethokoukis is a 2002 “Jeopardy!” champion.

Use these show notes to follow along with the audio:

Segment one

  • Jim endeared himself to Ron and Ed immediately by guessing the correct origin of President Reagan’s quote at the beginning of the show. File “Moscow University” away for the next TSOE trivia night.

  • Upwing vs downwing economies: Everything these days is left vs right. While useful, they are not the most important way to look at the world. Instead upwing vs downwing is the best way. In effect, do you think we can do better?

  • 1955 - 1973 was broadly the post war decades that were very upwing economies. There was a lot of confidence in technology and its ability to create a better world.

  • So why does Jim define 1973 as the end of the upwing economy? It featured a marked slowdown in productivity growth due to a number of factors: an oil shock, the stock market fell, and a nasty recession. 

  • With respect to the crowding out of talent: The share of spending done on government research vs business used to be 2/3 government. It has flipped around now and it’s important to remember that, broadly, they are doing different things.

Segment two

  • Is innovation overall slowing down? That which is lightly or zero-regulated has been moving very fast. It’s gotten hard in spaces like high speed rail, a reactor, a highway, new housing, and so on. 

  • From Jim during segment two of the show today: When you look at what people expected the economy to do in 60s and 90s, “If they were to see the economy today, they would ask what happened?”

  • This should motivate you to CREATE. From Jim today, “If we do not have the ability to imagine a better future, why take a risk? Why even try?”

  • Bad ideas equal bad policies which equals slow growth. Jim wants to BREAK this cycle and talks about it in his book, The Conservative Futurist https://www.amazon.com/Conservative-Futurist-Create-Sci-Fi-Promised/dp/1546005544 

Segment three

  • “Beware the Precautionay Principle” (episode 284) was a show Ron and Ed did right before the pandemic. Jim introduced Ron/Ed to the Proactionary Principle. In effect, taking no risk is the biggest risk of all https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proactionary_principle 

  • “At worst, AI is a technology only as good as computer+internet. But it could be something more! It will make us wildly more productive in all aspects of our life. If that’s the case, we are talking about the ability to accelerate scientific research across the board.” —Jim

  • “People are focusing on the most mundane potential applications of this technology (AI). You have literally Superman, a super research assistant, who can run through every possible combination in every field of every human endeavor.” —Jim

  • On AI and it’s ability to get better, Jim says, “AI is the worst today it’s ever going to be.”

Segment four

Bonus note

 
 

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